Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases.

A comprehensive evaluation of COVID-19 policies and outcomes in 50 countries and territories.

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the world unguarded, some places outperformed others in COVID-19 containment. This longitudinal study considered a comparative evaluation of COVID-19 containment across 50 distinctly governed regions between March 2020 and November 2021. Our analysis distinguishes between a pre-vaccine phase (March-November 2020) and a vaccinating phase (December 2020-November 2021). In the first phase, we develop an indicator, termed lockdown efficiency (LE), to estimate the efficacy of measures against monthly case numbers. Nine other indicators were considered, including vaccine-related indicators in the second phase. Linear mixed models are used to explore the relationship between each government policy & hygiene education (GP&HE) indicator and each vital health & socioeconomic (VH&SE) measure. Our ranking shows that surveyed countries in Oceania and Asian outperformed countries in other regions for pandemic containment prior to vaccine development. Their success appears to be associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions, acting early, and adjusting policies as needed. After vaccines have been distributed, maintaining non-pharmacological intervention is the best way to achieve protection from variant viral strains, breakthrough infections, waning vaccine efficacy, and vaccine hesitancy limiting of herd immunity. The findings of the study provide insights into the effectiveness of emerging infectious disease containment policies worldwide.

Visiting in disguise: Analysis of inpatient companions in the time of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: As outbreak of COVID-19 infection, on April 3, 2020, it is stipulated that the number of inpatient companions is limited to one in Taiwan. All companions are required to register their real personal data with 14 days of travel history, occupation, contact history, and cluster history. We would like to evaluate the impact of the new regulations to the accompanying and visiting culture in Taiwan, via analyzing the appearance and characteristics of inpatient companions in this period. METHODS: Using intelligent technology, we designed a novel system in managing the inpatient companions (InPatients Companions Management System [IPCMS]), and the IPCMS was used to collect data about characteristics of inpatients and companions between April 27 and May 3, 2020. The database is built using MySQL software. Microsoft Excel 2016 and SPSS version 20.0 statistical software were used for data analysis, including the basic data of the companions, differential analysis of companions' gender, person-days and cumulative time, differential analysis of accompaniment-patient relationship, and frequency of accompaniment and cumulative hours. RESULTS: During study period, daily inpatient admissions ranged from 2242 to 2514, the number of companions per day ranged from 2048 to 2293, and the number of companions for one inpatient is 1 to 9 per day, with an average of 1.20 to 1.26. The companions were mostly family members, and most of them were the inpatients' children (32.9%), and spouse (26.13%). More females than males were noted in all categories of companionship with statistical significance. CONCLUSION: The data obtained in this study could be an important basis for the transformation and reform of the companions culture in Taiwan's hospitals and will also provide a glimpse into the attitudes and culture of companions who have long been ignorant and neglected. The experience gained in our IPCMS could also serve as a reference for other hospitals in Taiwan and worldwide.

Nonpolio Enterovirus Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Taiwan, 2020.

In Taiwan, lower nonpolio enterovirus activity during the coronavirus disease pandemic in 2020 compared with 2014-2019 might be attributable to adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. The preventable fraction among unexposed persons indicated that 90% of nonpolio enterovirus activity might have been prevented during 2014-2019 by adopting the same measures enforced in 2020.

The effect of preventing subclinical transmission on the containment of COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and experience in Taiwan.

The control strategies preventing subclinical transmission differed among countries. A stochastic transmission model was used to assess the potential effectiveness of control strategies at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Three strategies included lack of prevention of subclinical transmission (Strategy A), partial prevention using testing with different accuracy (Strategy B) and complete prevention by isolating all at-risk people (Strategy C, Taiwan policy). The high probability of containing COVID-19 in Strategy C is observed in different scenario, had varied in the number of initial cases (5, 20, and 40), the reproduction number (1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3.5), the proportion of at-risk people being investigated (40%, 60%, 80%, to 90%), the delay from symptom onset to isolation (long and short), and the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset (<1%, 15%, and 30%). Strategy C achieved probability of 80% under advantageous scenario, such as low number of initial cases and high coverage of epidemiological investigation but Strategy B and C rarely achieved that of 60%. Considering the unsatisfactory accuracy of current testing and insufficient resources, isolation of all at-risk people, as adopted in Taiwan, could be an effective alternative.

Collateral Benefit of COVID-19 Control Measures on Influenza Activity, Taiwan.

Taiwan has strictly followed infection control measures to prevent spread of coronavirus disease. Meanwhile, nationwide surveillance data revealed drastic decreases in influenza diagnoses in outpatient departments, positivity rates of clinical specimens, and confirmed severe cases during the first 12 weeks of 2020 compared with the same period of 2019.